#comparison

5 public notes

What makes an analogy break?

An analogy transfers understanding from a familiar situation to an unfamiliar one. Calling a project a relay race highlights handovers, but it can hide the fact that several people may work at once. The comparison becomes more useful when you name both the shared relationship and the important difference.

Thinking♡ 0🔖 0

counterfactual

Compared with what would have happened anyway?

An improvement after a change does not reveal how much the change caused. A shop may become busier after replacing its sign, while nearby shops also become busier during a festival. The useful comparison is with a credible estimate of what would have happened without the replacement.

Thinking♡ 0🔖 0

comparison

Compare nearby concepts along the same dimensions

Two definitions can sound clear separately and still be difficult to distinguish. A comparison note places them beside each other and asks the same questions of both. Comparing weather and climate by timescale and purpose makes their difference clearer than collecting two unrelated descriptions.

noutez♡ 0🔖 0

denominators

Out of how many?

A count becomes more informative when its denominator is visible. Twenty complaints out of 100 orders describe a different situation from twenty complaints out of 10,000 orders. Before comparing two numbers, check the size of the groups, the time periods and what was counted in each.

Thinking♡ 0🔖 0

baserates

What usually happens in comparable situations?

A forecast needs more than the details of one appealing story. If similar projects usually take six weeks, a new estimate of two weeks needs a clear explanation. A base rate provides a starting point from comparable cases, which can then be adjusted using evidence specific to the current situation.

Thinking♡ 0🔖 0