#probability

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What a radioactive half-life tells you

A radioactive half-life is the time over which the expected number of undecayed nuclei falls to half its starting value. After two half-lives, the expected fraction remaining is one quarter. It does not mean every individual nucleus waits for that interval before decaying on a shared schedule.

Science♡ 0🔖 0

calibration

Does your confidence match your track record?

Confidence can be checked against outcomes over many predictions. If events you label 80% likely occur about eight times out of ten across a large enough set, that level is well calibrated. One failed prediction does not by itself disprove the estimate, because 80% still leaves room for failure.

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